10 Yr Treasury
30 Yr Mortgage
6 Month CD
Prime Rate
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4.5%
5.1%
6.0%
6.2%
6.6%
9.3%
5.4%
4.6%
5.9%
9.0%
8.3%
6.2%
4.5%
7.2%
11.7%
14.0%
17.8%
12.3%
8.3%
10.2%
8.3%
7.3%
5.6%
8.0%
9.7%
7.6%
7.2%
4.1%
3.3%
3.5%
7.1%
5.2%
5.1%
6.1%
4.7%
6.3%
5.9%
1.8%
1.3%
1.1%
2.8%
4.8%
4.4%
5.6%
4.9%
6.3%
8.1%
8.2%
5.7%
5.0%
8.2%
11.1%
6.3%
6.3%
5.6%
8.2%
10.0%
8.3%
16.1%
14.7%
9.5%
12.0%
7.6%
6.7%
7.2%
7.7%
9.1%
8.3%
6.3%
4.0%
3.4%
4.9%
5.8%
5.6%
5.8%
5.7%
5.3%
6.9%
3.7%
1.9%
1.0%
1.8%
3.6%
5.5%
1.38%
1.14%
.58%
4.2%
4.6%
5.8%
4.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.7%
5.6%
7.0%
7.7%
9.9%
6.5%
5.2%
6.7%
9.2%
9.9%
6.8%
6.0%
9.0%
13.4%
14.4%
23.6%
14.8%
10.8%
12.8%
10.4%
8.9%
8.7%
10.2%
12.2%
9.9%
9.4%
6.8%
5.6%
5.6%
9.9%
8.1%
9.6%
9.9%
7.3%
9.9%
8.9%
4.5%
4.0%
3.8%
6.0%
8.3%
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0.1%
0.5%
1.1%
0.1%
1.5%
1.1%
0.3%
0.4%
2.3%
2.1%
2.0%
0.1%
1.2%
1.0%
1.8%
5.6%
1.7%
2.4%
1.2%
1.7%
0.7%
0.6%
1.6%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
2.2%
0.1%
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
4.0%
5.0%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.9%
6.0%
6.0%
6.6%
8.5%
6.9%
5.5%
5.8%
9.8%
10.5%
7.3%
6.4%
7.8%
11.6%
15.3%
20.4%
15.8%
11.5%
11.0%
11.1%
9.5%
7.5%
8.8%
10.5%
10.5%
10.0%
7.2%
6.0%
6.0%
8.5%
8.7%
8.3%
8.5%
7.8%
8.5%
9.5%
4.8%
4.3%
4.0%
5.2%
7.2%
8.3%
Variance
Actual
Forecast
Year
Variance
Avg. Variance:    All Years
Avg. Variance: 1990-2006
Avg. Variance: 2002-2006
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
1.0%
1.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
1.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.0%
2.6%
0.3%
0.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.7%
0.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.8%
0.1%
0.7%
2.0%
2.1%
0.7%
0.6%
0.1%
1.5%
0.6%
0.0%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.2%
3.1%
3.9%
4.8%
3.7%
4.1%
3.7%
4.2%
4.3%
4.7%
4.7%
5.5%
6.2%
7.8%
6.2%
6.0%
6.5%
6.9%
7.2%
7.8%
6.7%
7.8%
9.2%
10.1%
13.1%
14.0%
10.2%
12.1%
11.2%
9.0%
6.9%
9.2%
9.3%
7.6%
7.8%
6.9%
6.6%
5.9%
7.6%
5.5%
6.4%
5.6%
4.5%
6.4%
5.1%
5.2%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.3%
3.9%
4.7%
3.8%
4.1%
3.9%
4.1%
4.2%
4.6%
4.8%
5.7%
6.0%
7.7%
6.4%
5.9%
6.4%
6.7%
7.4%
8.0%
6.9%
7.7%
9.0%
10.4%
12.8%
13.7%
10.5%
11.8%
11.5%
9.3%
7.1%
9.0%
9.1%
7.8%
8.1%
7.1%
6.8%
5.8%
7.8%
5.7%
6.3%
5.8%
4.7%
6.3%
5.2%
5.1%
4.0%
4.3%
4.2%
4.5%
4.6%
7.2%
7.5%
8.2%
9.2%
8.7%
8.4%
9.0%
10.5%
12.4%
14.9%
16.2%
13.1%
13.6%
12.7%
10.8%
8.9%
10.8%
10.7%
9.4%
9.3%
8.2%
7.9%
7.2%
9.3%
6.9%
7.7%
6.8%
6.5%
8.0%
7.1%
7.1%
5.8%
5.6%
5.8%
6.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.0%
0.4%
0.1%
1.0%
0.5%
1.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.2%
1.2%
2.8%
0.6%
3.5%
1.6%
0.6%
1.9%
1.9%
2.1%
0.1%
1.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0.1%
0.8%
1.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.6%
1.0%
1.8%
1.2%
0.0%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
7.4%
8.5%
9.6%
9.1%
8.8%
9.0%
10.4%
12.9%
14.8%
16.9%
13.6%
13.4%
13.2%
11.3%
9.3%
10.7%
10.6%
9.7%
9.7%
8.5%
8.2%
7.2%
9.2%
7.2%
7.6%
7.1%
6.7%
7.9%
7.4%
7.1%
6.1%
5.9%
5.8%
6.3%
6.1%
Variance
Actual
Forecast
Variance
Actual
Forecast
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Source of interest rate data for the above charts and tables: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an
investment advisor.  None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell,
or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund. SignalTrend does not recommend short selling,
the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to determine the suitability of any investment for
your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this website. Carefully read any fund's
prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to 2/1/07 are the result of backtesting.
Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please read the following Terms of
Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of SignalTrend's  products, services or
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0.91%
0.66%
0.38%
0.91%
0.78%
0.40%
1.04%
0.69%
0.50%
0.2%
0.4%
1.3%
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.8%
2.9%
1.0%
0.6%
3.0%
1.3%
2.6%
0.5%
1.8%
2.6%
1.9%
6.0%
7.9%
3.3%
0.2%
1.7%
0.9%
1.4%
0.1%
0.4%
1.7%
0.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.1%
1.1%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
4.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1.4%
1.2%
0.0%
Backtest Results
Interest Rate Forecast Systems: 1958 - 2006
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