Conclusions:

The "5" years of the decades have had no losers.
The "5" years of the decades have had the best average gains.
Returns improve from the first through the 6th year of decades .
"7" years performed poorly while "8" years have done well.
● The first decade of this millenium may not adhere to previous trends.
Introduction:
The first years of the decades are 1900, 1910, 1920 and so on. The "5" years of the decades would be 1905, 1915, 1925 ,1935
and continuing to 1995 and 2005. Below you will see the average and worst performance of each such year of the decade. The
period 1900-2004 is the test period. For example, the average performance of the "5" years would be the average performance of
1905, 1915,1925, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985 and 1995.
1)Historical Summary: 1900 - 2004 (Dow Jones Industrials)
Figure 1
Decade Cycle (1900 - 2004)
Analysis:
This article is presented in 2005... a "5" year. According to the last century, the worst performance during a "5" year has been
a positive 11%.  The reasons for the existence of the Decade Cycle may be embedded in the degrees of optimism or
trepidation which evolve as we approach a new decade and proceed through a decade. The year before a new decade, the
media focuses on what to expect in the coming decade in the areas of clothing, colors, technology, politics etc. The shifting of
attitudes throughout these periods may influence investors appetite for stocks. Optimism and pessimism definitely affect
investment behavior as well as buying and saving behaviors.

The introduction of terrorism on American soil certainly diminished the level of optimism. 2005 currently looks like it will come
in at the low end of the range for a "5" year. It actually may break new ground on the downside. Previous decades experienced
severe trauma as well.

If a new decade affects peoples attitudes, how about the introduction of a new century? We are in the first decade of this
century. If stock performance during the first decade of 5 or 10  centuries were available, we could look at those graphs to
gain some perspective. Unfortunately, stock markets haven't been around for that long.

With 2005 being a Post Election Year, the Presidential Election Cycle should exert downward pressure. (See the Nov issue of
SignalTrend's Strategy Research Monthly.)

We are approaching the end of September and the Dow is down about 2% for the year. Typical Oct - Dec performance would
add 2% to get 2005 to a break even point by year end. (See the Spring/Fall Equinox Cycle for the typical Oct - Dec
performance.) It could do better, or worse.

The Decade Cycle and the Spring/Fall Equinox Cycle seem to be pushing upward but the Presidential Election Cycle and
SignalTrend are pushing downward. The winner will be revealed in time .
2) Additional Information: 1900-2004 (Dow Jones Industrials)
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Decade Cycle
Strategy Research: Summary, Analysis and Long Term Test Results
DJIA
Forecast
Signal 1900-1925
Signal 1926-1950
Signal 1951-1975
Signal 1976-2000
Signal 2001-2005
Historical Prices


S&P 500
Forecast
Signal 1950-1975
Signal 1976-2000
Signal 2001-2005
Historical Prices


NASDAQ
Forecast
Signal 1950-1975
Signal 1976-2000
Signal 2001-2005
Historical Prices


40 Year History
Prime Rate
Mortgage Rates
Treasury Rates
CD Rates
Figure 2
Decade Cycle (1900 - 2004)
Signals the Trend...  In Stocks and Interest Rates !             Backtested 100 Years !
SignalTrend