DJIA
Forecast
Signal 1900-1925
Signal 1926-1950
Signal 1951-1975
Signal 1976-2000
Signal 2001-2005
Historical Prices


S&P 500
Forecast
Signal 1950-1975
Signal 1976-2000
Signal 2001-2005
Historical Prices


NASDAQ
Forecast
Signal 1950-1975
Signal 1976-2000
Signal 2001-2005
Historical Prices


40 Year History
Prime Rate
Mortgage Rates
Treasury Rates
CD Rates
Observations:
● The Dow has been the best performer.
The S&P 500 has been the worst performer.
● The major indexes are highly synchronized.
1986                                     1991                                     1996                                     2001                                     2006
Daily Close shown in Logarithmic scale.  Source of NASDAQ data: Global Financial Data, Inc.
Analysis (1986 - 2006):
The three indexes tend to move in the same direction. Major tops (T) and bottoms (B) are formed at roughly
the same time.  However, the indexes sometimes move at very different speeds. (For example, from 2000
through 2002 all indexes declined but the NASDAQ had the greatest percentage decline.)

Dividends are also an important part of total return which are
not included above. The Dow is currently
yielding 2.26%. The S&P 500 dividend is 1.9%. We tabulated the current yield for the largest 100 NASDAQ
stocks at
. 9%. The current yield for the largest 100 non-financial NASDAQ stocks is  . 27%

Notice that the NASDAQ underperformed the other indexes during 1986-1990 and 2000-2002. It
outperformed them during 1990-2000 and 2002-2006.
More:
Look below to send us feedback or to see previous issues of Investment Tips.
6/23/06
Link to Previous Issue of Investment Tips
Stocks are due for a setback
A 15% decline is likely this year.
Click the above link to see the 104 year record.
 
Which index has been the strongest?
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DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ (1986-2006, excluding dividends)
NASDAQ (ixic)      9.65% annual return
DJIA (dji)             10.01% annual return
S&P 500 (spx)      9.09% annual return
 
 
T
T
T
T
T
T
B
B
B
B
B
B