Stock Market Timing Performance
$423,349
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow Jones Industrial Average
(5% Per Year)
$1
SignalTrend's return reflects Long and Short trades placed at the DJIA close, the
day after each signal, excluding any variables other than the Price of the index.
(Excludes taxes, dividends, commissions, margin costs etc.) The returns with
margin are calculated by multiplying the weekly returns without margin x 2.
SignalTrend's Stock Market Timing strategy was
developed through years of research and
thoroughly
back-tested over one hundred years.
The result nearly tripled the annual price gains of
the Dow. The market timing performance using
margin was nearly 5 times the Dow's annual
return! The core of this indicator is a versatile
model that  identifies major turning points in the
overall stock market. Hundreds of analytical
equations were crafted to provide objective,
unemotional Buy and Sell signals. SignalTrend is
designed to multiply your profits during both Bull
and Bear markets as an alternative to Buy and
Hold investing. Its indicators should be used to
trade the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes.

This stock market timing system went live March
10, 2005 after being back-tested to 1900.
SignalTrend was applied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average from 1900 through 2004, a
period in which the blue chip index rose an
average of 5% per year.


Market Timing Performance (1900-2004)
17 Sideways Years
19 Sideways Years
SignalTrend performed well over an entire century… a century that
included the Great Depression, the Cyclic 70’s, the Crash of ‘87 and 9/11.
If you know of any other stock market timing model that tripled the return of
the market over 105 years, let us know. Until then...  
Don’t invest without SignalTrend !
$163
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1900              1925              1950              1975              2000
23%
SignalTrend's
Annual Return
(With Margin)
Compounded Annual Return
Average Gain on Winning Trades
Average Loss on Losing Trades
Maximum Loss on Losing Trades
13%
47%
7%
16%
Winning Trades
Losing Trades
46
18
6
Signals per Decade
926
326
0
Months Bullish
Months Bearish
Months Neutral
Market Timing Performance
SignalTrend's
Market Timing Performance
13%
SignalTrend's
Annual Return
(Without Margin)
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Market Timing Performance
Could research covering an entire century improve your Market Timing Performance? Do you believe that methods that
have worked in the past should have a place in your future investment decisions? Do you apply expert recommendations
blindly or do you subject them to the actual market conditions of the past before investing real dollars in them? Then you
know that it takes a lot of time to subject theories to the tests of the past. Backtesting determines how strong Market
Timing Performance would have been for a strategy, had it been implemented over the test period. It is the only was to
estimate Market Timing Performance of a strategy before putting your investment dollars at risk. SignalTrend developed
Market Timing systems for stocks, bonds and even inflation. Our stock market timing indicators produce buy and sell
signals. Our inflation and interest rate market timing models produce twelve month forecasts to give you SignalTrend's
expectation on where those key rates will be twelve months from now. SignalTrend shows the Market Timing
Performance each of its systems: DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, prime rate, mortgage rate, treasury rate, CD rate and
inflation. All of these timing methods were backtested over decades if not a century.

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Interest Rate Market Timing Performance
SignalTrend's Interest Rate Forecast System was developed through years of research and thoroughly backtested over many
decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in the tables
below. The heart of this system is a versatile model that identifies the probable course of future interest rates. Numerous analytical
equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its signals are designed to produce
a Prime Rate Forecast, Mortgage Rate Forecast, Treasury Rate Forecast and CD Rate Forecast. Take a few minutes and review
the tables below.
The average variance between actual and forecasted rates for the five year period ending with 2006,
was .38%, .40%, .58%, and .50% for Mortgage, Treasury, Prime and CD rates respectively.
That's Market Timing
Performance that you can use!
10 Yr Treasury
30 Yr Mortgage
6 Month CD
Prime Rate
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7.6%
7.2%
4.1%
3.3%
3.5%
7.1%
5.2%
5.1%
6.1%
4.7%
6.3%
5.9%
1.8%
1.3%
1.1%
2.8%
4.8%
8.3%
6.3%
4.0%
3.4%
4.9%
5.8%
5.6%
5.8%
5.7%
5.3%
6.9%
3.7%
1.9%
1.0%
1.8%
3.6%
5.5%
1.14%
.58%
9.9%
9.4%
6.8%
5.6%
5.6%
9.9%
8.1%
9.6%
9.9%
7.3%
9.9%
8.9%
4.5%
4.0%
3.8%
6.0%
8.3%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
2.2%
0.1%
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
10.0%
7.2%
6.0%
6.0%
8.5%
8.7%
8.3%
8.5%
7.8%
8.5%
9.5%
4.8%
4.3%
4.0%
5.2%
7.2%
8.3%
Variance
Actual
Forecast
Year
Variance

Avg. Variance 1990-2006
Avg. Variance 2002-2006
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
0.8%
0.1%
0.7%
2.0%
2.1%
0.7%
0.6%
0.1%
1.5%
0.6%
0.0%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.2%
7.6%
7.8%
6.9%
6.6%
5.9%
7.6%
5.5%
6.4%
5.6%
4.5%
6.4%
5.1%
5.2%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.3%
8.1%
7.1%
6.8%
5.8%
7.8%
5.7%
6.3%
5.8%
4.7%
6.3%
5.2%
5.1%
4.0%
4.3%
4.2%
4.5%
4.6%
9.4%
9.3%
8.2%
7.9%
7.2%
9.3%
6.9%
7.7%
6.8%
6.5%
8.0%
7.1%
7.1%
5.8%
5.6%
5.8%
6.3%
0.5%
0.7%
0.1%
0.8%
1.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.6%
1.0%
1.8%
1.2%
0.0%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
9.7%
8.5%
8.2%
7.2%
9.2%
7.2%
7.6%
7.1%
6.7%
7.9%
7.4%
7.1%
6.1%
5.9%
5.8%
6.3%
6.1%
Variance
Actual
Forecast
Variance
Actual
Forecast
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an investment advisor.  None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund.
SignalTrend does not recommend short selling, the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to
determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to
2/1/07 are the result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Please read the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of
SignalTrend's  products, services or information  constitutes your agreement to abide by SignalTrend's Terms of Use/Disclaimer as
contained in the following link.
For mortgage, treasury and prime rates the percentages in the forecast columns represent January forecasts for
December interest rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in January the December
forecasts are published. In February, 2007, the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents January forecasts for June interest rates. Each
month the six month forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In February the July
forecasts are published etc. For system test results from 1958,
click here.
2%
12%
10%
8%
2%
6%
12%
4%
10%
20%
8%
18%
6%
16%
4%
14%
20%
1965  1970  1975 1980  1985  1990  1995  2000  2005
18%
1965  1970  1975  1980 1985  1990  1995  2000  2005
16%
14%
22%
Prime
10 Year Treasury
30 Year Mortgage
6 Month CD
0.66%
0.38%
0.78%
0.40%
0.69%
0.50%
0.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.1%
1.1%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
4.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1.4%
1.2%
0.0%
Interest Rate Charts: 1965 - 2006
The 30 year mortgage graph was derived from FHA mortgages for the period 1/65-3/71 and from conventional mortgages from 4/71-12/06.
Source of interest rate data for the above charts and tables: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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