Whether you are a mortgage lender, prospective home buyer
or home seller, the future of mortgage interest rates is crucial to
your decision making process.
Is now a good time to buy or will rates be lower later?
Should I sell now before rates rise and make it difficult for
buyers to qualify for loans?
Should I expand my mortgage business ... or will mortgage
rates rise and decrease the demand for new mortgages?
Mortgage rates and other key interest rates are shown
below beginning in 1965. Mortgage rates are not high by
historical standards. They have been generally falling for the
last twenty-five years. Twenty-five years is a long time for a
trend to continue. Will it? There are reasons to believe that we
are at the crossroads of a reversal of that 25 year super
downtrend.
A Mortgage Rate Forecast can be an indispensable tool in the
decision making process for lenders, homeowners and realtors.
SignalTrend has developed a Mortgage Rate Forecast system
that has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in a 35 year
backtest.
SignalTrend's Mortgage Rate Forecast is updated on this page
monthly. Return to this site regularly when you need a 12
month Mortgage Rate Forecast. SignalTrend subscribers also
receive SignalTrend's Prime Rate Forecast, 10 Year Treasury
Rate Forecast, Six Month CD Forecast, Investment Tips
E-Newsletter & Stock Market Forecast!
or home seller, the future of mortgage interest rates is crucial to
your decision making process.
Is now a good time to buy or will rates be lower later?
Should I sell now before rates rise and make it difficult for
buyers to qualify for loans?
Should I expand my mortgage business ... or will mortgage
rates rise and decrease the demand for new mortgages?
Mortgage rates and other key interest rates are shown
below beginning in 1965. Mortgage rates are not high by
historical standards. They have been generally falling for the
last twenty-five years. Twenty-five years is a long time for a
trend to continue. Will it? There are reasons to believe that we
are at the crossroads of a reversal of that 25 year super
downtrend.
A Mortgage Rate Forecast can be an indispensable tool in the
decision making process for lenders, homeowners and realtors.
SignalTrend has developed a Mortgage Rate Forecast system
that has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in a 35 year
backtest.
SignalTrend's Mortgage Rate Forecast is updated on this page
monthly. Return to this site regularly when you need a 12
month Mortgage Rate Forecast. SignalTrend subscribers also
receive SignalTrend's Prime Rate Forecast, 10 Year Treasury
Rate Forecast, Six Month CD Forecast, Investment Tips
E-Newsletter & Stock Market Forecast!
Accurate Results
SignalTrend's Mortgage Rate Forecast System was developed
through years of research and thoroughly backtested over
many decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of
SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in
the tables below. The heart of this system is a versatile model
that identifies the probable course of future interest rates.
Numerous analytical equations were crafted to provide
objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its
signals are designed to produce a forecast for the 30 Year
Mortgage Rate, Prime Rate, 10 year Treasury Rate and 6
Month CD Rate. Take a few minutes and review the tables
below. The average variance between actual and
forecasted rates for the five year period ending with
2006, was .38%, .58%, .40%, and .50% for Mortgage, Prime,
Treasury and CD rates respectively.
SignalTrend's Mortgage Rate Forecast System was developed
through years of research and thoroughly backtested over
many decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of
SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in
the tables below. The heart of this system is a versatile model
that identifies the probable course of future interest rates.
Numerous analytical equations were crafted to provide
objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its
signals are designed to produce a forecast for the 30 Year
Mortgage Rate, Prime Rate, 10 year Treasury Rate and 6
Month CD Rate. Take a few minutes and review the tables
below. The average variance between actual and
forecasted rates for the five year period ending with
2006, was .38%, .58%, .40%, and .50% for Mortgage, Prime,
Treasury and CD rates respectively.
| 30 Yr Mortgage |
| SignalTrend Inc. 2007, 2008 All Rights Reserved. Membership Privacy Policy Terms of Use / Disclaimer Site Map Contact Us |
| 7.6% 7.1% 4.1% 3.3% 3.4% 7.0% 5.1% 5.1% 6.0% 4.7% 6.3% 5.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.0% 2.7% 4.8% |
| 8.2% 6.2% 3.9% 3.3% 4.8% 5.8% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3% 6.9% 3.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.7% 3.5% 5.4% |
| 1.14% .58% |
| 9.8% 9.4% 6.7% 5.6% 5.6% 9.8% 8.1% 9.5% 9.8% 7.2% 9.8% 8.9% 4.5% 3.9% 3.7% 5.9% 8.2% |
| 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 |
| 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% |
| 10.0% 7.2% 6.0% 6.0% 8.5% 8.6% 8.2% 8.5% 7.7% 8.5% 9.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.0% 5.1% 7.1% 8.2% |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| Year |
| Variance |
Avg. Variance 1990-2006
Avg. Variance 2002-2006
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 1.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% |
| 7.6% 7.8% 6.8% 6.5% 5.8% 7.5% 5.5% 6.4% 5.6% 4.5% 6.4% 5.0% 5.1% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% |
| 8.0% 7.0% 6.7% 5.7% 7.8% 5.7% 6.3% 5.8% 4.6% 6.2% 5.2% 5.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% |
| 9.3% 9.2% 8.1% 7.8% 7.2% 9.2% 6.9% 7.6% 6.8% 6.4% 7.9% 7.0% 7.1% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 6.3% |
| 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 1.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% |
| 9.6% 8.5% 8.2% 7.1% 9.2% 7.2% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 7.9% 7.3% 7.0% 6.0% 5.8% 5.7% 6.2% 6.1% |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an investment advisor. None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund.
SignalTrend does not recommend short selling, the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to
determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to 2/1/07 are the
result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please read
the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of SignalTrend's
products, services or information constitutes your agreement to abide by SignalTrend's Terms of Use/Disclaimer as contained in the
following link.
For mortgage, treasury and prime rates the percentages in the
forecast columns represent January forecasts for December interest
rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in
January the December forecasts are published. In February, 2007,
the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents
January forecasts for June interest rates. Each month the six month
forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In
February the July forecasts are published etc. For system test results
from 1958, click here.
forecast columns represent January forecasts for December interest
rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in
January the December forecasts are published. In February, 2007,
the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents
January forecasts for June interest rates. Each month the six month
forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In
February the July forecasts are published etc. For system test results
from 1958, click here.
| 2% |
| 12% |
| 10% |
| 8% |
| 2% |
| 6% |
| 12% |
| 4% |
| 10% |
| 20% |
| 8% |
| 18% |
| 6% |
| 16% |
| 4% |
| 14% |
| 20% |
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
| 18% |
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
| 16% |
| 14% |
| 22% |
Prime
10 Year Treasury
30 Year Mortgage
6 Month CD
| 0.66% 0.38% |
| 0.78% 0.40% |
| 0.69% 0.50% |
| 0.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.1% 1.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% |
| Interest Rate Charts: 1965 - 2006 |
The 30 year mortgage graph was derived from FHA mortgages for the period 1/65-3/71 and from conventional mortgages from 4/71-12/06.
Source of mortgage rate data for charts and tables: Freddie Mac. Source of other interest rate data for charts and tables: Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis.
Source of mortgage rate data for charts and tables: Freddie Mac. Source of other interest rate data for charts and tables: Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis.
| Mortgage Rate Forecast |
| 30 Year Mortgage Rates |
6.10%
12/2007
1/2007
6.70%
6.20%
6.30%
6.40%
6.50%
6.60%
I
I
|
Monthly average conventional 30 year mortgage rates.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
| _______________________________________________________________________________ |
| Updated monthly. |
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