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Accurate Results
SignalTrend's Treasury Rate Forecast System was developed through years of research and thoroughly backtested over many
decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in the tables
below. The heart of this system is a versatile model that identifies the probable course of future interest rates. Numerous
analytical equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its signals are designed
to produce a Treasury Rate Forecast, Mortgage Rate Forecast, Prime Rate Forecast and CD Rate Forecast. Take a few
minutes and review the tables below.
The average variance between actual and forecasted rates for the five year
period ending with 2006, was .38%, .40%, .58%, and .50% for Mortgage, Treasury, Prime and CD rates respectively.
10 Year Treasury
30 Yr Mortgage
6 Month CD
Prime Rate
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7.6%
7.2%
4.1%
3.3%
3.5%
7.1%
5.2%
5.1%
6.1%
4.7%
6.3%
5.9%
1.8%
1.3%
1.1%
2.8%
4.8%
8.3%
6.3%
4.0%
3.4%
4.9%
5.8%
5.6%
5.8%
5.7%
5.3%
6.9%
3.7%
1.9%
1.0%
1.8%
3.6%
5.5%
1.14%
.58%
9.9%
9.4%
6.8%
5.6%
5.6%
9.9%
8.1%
9.6%
9.9%
7.3%
9.9%
8.9%
4.5%
4.0%
3.8%
6.0%
8.3%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
2.2%
0.1%
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
10.0%
7.2%
6.0%
6.0%
8.5%
8.7%
8.3%
8.5%
7.8%
8.5%
9.5%
4.8%
4.3%
4.0%
5.2%
7.2%
8.3%
Variance
Actual
Forecast
Year
Variance

Avg. Variance 1990-2006
Avg. Variance 2002-2006
Actual
Forecast
0.3%
0.8%
0.1%
0.7%
2.0%
2.1%
0.7%
0.6%
0.1%
1.5%
0.6%
0.0%
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.2%
7.6%
7.8%
6.9%
6.6%
5.9%
7.6%
5.5%
6.4%
5.6%
4.5%
6.4%
5.1%
5.2%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.3%
8.1%
7.1%
6.8%
5.8%
7.8%
5.7%
6.3%
5.8%
4.7%
6.3%
5.2%
5.1%
4.0%
4.3%
4.2%
4.5%
4.6%
9.4%
9.3%
8.2%
7.9%
7.2%
9.3%
6.9%
7.7%
6.8%
6.5%
8.0%
7.1%
7.1%
5.8%
5.6%
5.8%
6.3%
0.5%
0.7%
0.1%
0.8%
1.9%
1.9%
0.8%
0.6%
1.0%
1.8%
1.2%
0.0%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
9.7%
8.5%
8.2%
7.2%
9.2%
7.2%
7.6%
7.1%
6.7%
7.9%
7.4%
7.1%
6.1%
5.9%
5.8%
6.3%
6.1%
Variance
Actual
Forecast
Variance
Actual
Forecast
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

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determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to
2/1/07 are the result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Please read the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of
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contained in the following link.
For mortgage, treasury and prime rates the percentages in the forecast columns represent January forecasts for
December interest rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in January the December
forecasts are published. In February, 2007, the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents January forecasts for June interest rates. Each
month the six month forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In February the July
forecasts are published etc. For system test results from 1958,
click here.
2%
12%
10%
8%
2%
6%
12%
4%
10%
20%
8%
18%
6%
16%
4%
14%
20%
1965  1970  1975 1980  1985  1990  1995  2000  2005
18%
1965  1970  1975  1980 1985  1990  1995  2000  2005
16%
14%
22%
Prime
10 Year Treasury
30 Year Mortgage
6 Month CD
0.66%
0.38%
0.78%
0.40%
0.69%
0.50%
0.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.1%
1.1%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
4.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1.4%
1.2%
0.0%
Interest Rate Charts: 1965 - 2006
The 30 year mortgage graph was derived from FHA mortgages for the period 1/65-3/71 and from conventional mortgages from 4/71-12/06.
Source of mortgage rate data for charts and tables: Freddie Mac.
 Source of other interest rate data for charts and tables: Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis.
10 Year Treasury Rate Forecast
Should you lock in todays rates for the long term or wait for rates
to fall?

If you buy 10 year treasuries now, will the rates be better next
year?

Interest bearing investments are often dramatically affected by
changing interest rates. Supposedly safe investments can
actually lose a lot of money. If treasury rates rise after you buy,
you could suffer heavy losses. The value of your bonds will fall
and your interest income will be locked in at the low interest
rates. If rates fall after you buy, you'll profit handsomely. The
value of your bonds will rise. And... you will have locked in the
higher rates for the life of the bonds. For a more detailed
explanation of the effect of future interest rates on the value of
your bonds, just click the How To Invest button above and read
the section titled Interest Bearing Investments.

Take a look at the following charts, showing key interest
rates since 1965.
They have been generally falling for the last
quarter century. Twenty-five years is a long time for a trend to
continue. Will it? There are reasons to believe that we may be at
the end of that 25 year super downtrend.