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SignalTrend's Market Timing Signal provides a Bull & Bear Market Indicator, tested from 1900 through 2004. The Bull Market Indicator is designed to profit from buying stocks in a Rising Market. The Bear Market Indicator is designed to profit from declines in the market. Returns for every signal in the 100 year backtest are detailed below. The same equations that produced the signals in 1900 were used to produce the signals in 2004 and every year in between. The 100 year backtest is evidence of the system's effectiveness as a Bull Market Indicator but also as a Bear Market Indicator... So you can make money in the stock market when it rises and also when it falls! "Date" is the date of the signal. "Price" is the closing price of the DJIA on the first trading day following the day of the signal. SignalTrend's return excludes any variables other than the Price of the index. (Excludes taxes, dividends, commissions, etc.) The Return on short sales is (Short Sale Price-Purchase Price)/Short Sale Price. The Signals are presented as a Bear Market Indicator and also as a Bull Market Indicator below. |
Bull & Bear Market Indicator 1900-2005 . . . a timing system that TRIPLED the annual price gains of the Dow in a 100 year backtest . . . only 6 signals / decade . . . . . . trading forecast for the DJIA, SP 500 or NASDAQ . . . consistent Bull & Bear market profits ! |
67 60 64 53 94 62 86 88 56 75 73 68 242 60 127 121 103 174 292 435 588 800 938 687 670 590 844 836 1900 3262 9068 8572 10891 11104 12549 8953 7522 |
1 8 3 20 3 10 13 8 27 9 11 0 6 27 8 1 25 31 5 22 3 7 1 12 20 0 14 10 1 1 12 6 16 1 0 6 1 31 0.2 10 |
-5% 4% -1% 15% -1% 26% 9% -7% 36% 18% 29% 0% 19% 72% 29% -14% 16% 0% -14% 6% 12% 10% -2% 23% 32% -2% 10% 12% 23% -3% 11% 13% -9% -3% -7% 24% -6% 72% -14% 10% |
Signals: Bear Market Indicator |
64 63 63 62 94 84 94 83 88 91 102 68 299 213 178 107 122 175 256 462 665 887 923 891 978 580 938 946 2471 3174 10239 9820 9962 10793 11740 11842 7115 |
1/13/1900 3/2/1900 10/4/1901 11/14/1902 3/2/1906 3/15/1907 1/14/1910 8/4/1911 12/6/1912 4/20/1917 1/16/1920 6/24/1921 5/31/1929 9/26/1930 4/9/1937 3/25/1938 5/17/1940 9/13/1946 9/11/1953 1/20/1956 4/27/1962 5/6/1966 1/10/1969 6/13/1969 2/2/1973 12/6/1974 2/11/1977 7/24/1981 10/9/1987 10/9/1992 10/13/2000 4/26/2002 7/23/2004 6/9/2006 3/10/08 6/23/08 2/23/09 |
63 63 62 94 84 94 83 88 91 102 68 299 213 178 107 122 175 256 462 665 887 923 891 978 580 938 946 2471 3174 10239 9820 9962 10793 11740 11842 7115 |
1 11 10 20 9 24 6 8 25 24 6 95 10 51 3 25 50 52 24 53 46 25 4 32 2 26 39 64 59 95 7 21 6 20 3 2 95 0.7 27 |
-7% 6% -4% 79% -11% 53% -3% 0% 61% 37% -7% 342% -12% 198% -16% 1% 70% 47% 58% 53% 51% 15% -5% 42% -13% 59% 12% 195% 67% 214% 8% 16% -1% 6% -6% -21% 342% -21% 44% |
3/2/1900 10/4/1901 11/14/1902 3/2/1906 3/15/1907 1/14/1910 8/4/1911 12/6/1912 4/20/1917 1/16/1920 6/24/1921 5/31/1929 9/26/1930 4/9/1937 3/25/1938 5/17/1940 9/13/1946 9/11/1953 1/20/1956 4/27/1962 5/6/1966 1/10/1969 6/13/1969 2/2/1973 12/6/1974 2/11/1977 7/24/1981 10/9/1987 10/9/1992 10/13/2000 4/26/2002 7/23/2004 6/9/2006 3/10/08 6/23/08 2/23/09 |
Signals: Bull Market Indicator |
67 60 64 53 94 62 86 88 56 75 73 68 242 60 127 121 103 174 292 435 588 800 938 687 670 590 844 836 1900 3262 9068 8572 10891 11104 12549 8953 7522 |
2/10/1900 10/26/1900 1/10/1902 7/15/1904 6/1/1906 1/24/1908 2/10/1911 3/29/1912 3/5/1915 1/18/1918 12/31/1920 7/1/1921 11/29/1929 12/30/1932 12/17/1937 4/15/1938 6/26/1942 4/29/1949 1/29/1954 11/15/1957 7/13/1962 12/16/1966 2/14/1969 6/12/1970 10/18/1974 12/20/1974 4/28/1978 5/21/1982 11/6/1987 10/30/1992 10/5/2001 11/1/2002 11/25/2005 7/7/2006 3/24/08 1/5/09 3/30/09 |
SIGNALS ISSUED SINCE 5/5/11 ARE NOT INCLUDED. |
SIGNALS ISSUED SINCE 5/5/11 ARE NOT INCLUDED. |
2/10/1900 10/26/1900 1/10/1902 7/15/1904 6/1/1906 1/24/1908 2/10/1911 3/29/1912 3/5/1915 1/18/1918 12/31/1920 7/1/1921 11/29/1929 12/30/1932 12/17/1937 4/15/1938 6/26/1942 4/29/1949 1/29/1954 11/15/1957 7/13/1962 12/16/1966 2/14/1969 6/12/1970 10/18/1974 12/20/1974 4/28/1978 5/21/1982 11/6/1987 10/30/1992 10/5/2001 11/1/2002 11/25/2005 7/7/2006 3/24/08 1/5/09 3/30/09 |
Price |
Date |
Price |
Sell DJIA Short |
Return |
Date |
Months |
Close Short Position |
Price |
Date |
Price |
Buy DJIA |
Return |
Date |
Months |
Sell DJIA |